The competing risks analysis for parallel and series systems using Type-II progressive censoring

Abstract

Recently, the study of the lifetime of systems in reliability and survival analysis in the presence of several causes of failure (competing risks) has attracted attention in the literature. In this paper, series and parallel systems with exponential lifetime for each item of the system are considered. Several causes of failure independently affect lifetime distributions and observations of failure times of the systems are considered under progressive Type-II censored scheme. For series systems, the maximum likelihood estimates of parameters are computed and confidence intervals for parameters of the model are obtained using Fisher information matrix. For parallel systems, the generalized EM algorithm which uses the Newton-Raphson algorithm inside the EM algorithm is used to compute the maximum likelihood estimates of parameters. Also, the standard errors of the maximum likelihood estimates are computed by using the supplemented EM algorithm. The simulation study confirms the good performance of the introduced approach.     

康区"三魔女",还是"康区三度母"——近代康区妇女精英研究

二十世纪上半叶康区三位著名妇女精英甘孜的孔萨?央金堪珠、德格的夏克? 泽旺志玛和瞻对的甲日?其美志玛在康区政治生活中扮演了重要的角色。她们之所以获得权力，是因为康区的传统习惯法以及清末和民国时期的法律都允许妇女在一个家族没有男性继承人的情况下继承名号和土司或头人的地位。为了获得和巩固政治地位，她们往往陷入多方势力的权力争斗中，这些势力包括其家族中的男性、来自其它家族的男性、地方军阀、中央政府，有时还有西藏地方政府。研究揭示了正是康区在夹缝中生存的各土司统治区域割裂、分权的性质为地方首领，特别是妇女领袖提供了较多的施展其政治才能的空间。     

Changes in work and care trajectories during the transition to motherhood

In most mid- and high-income countries, there have been significant demographic, structural, and cultural changes in the past decades. However, we know little about how these changes have shaped women's work patterns during a key life stage: the transition to motherhood. Using longitudinal data from Chile, covering over 30 years of employment histories and three periods of first births (1980–2010), I conduct sequence analysis to identify women's work-care trajectories during an eight-year period of the transition to motherhood. Over time, I find that continuous care work at home has declined, for which education plays a key role, while the chances of working continuously have not changed over time. Instead, I find an increasing trend of unsteady paths that combine paid work with either caretaking or unemployment. I discuss how these changes, as well as their association with education, have important implications for both gender and social inequality.     

Latin American convergence and divergence towards the mortality profiles of developed countries

It is uncertain whether Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) countries are approaching a single mortality regime. Over the last three decades, LAC has experienced major public health interventions and the highest number of homicides in the world. However, these interventions and homicide rates are not evenly shared across countries. This study documents trends in life expectancy and lifespan variability for 20 LAC countries, 2000–14. By extending a previous method, we decompose differences in lifespan variability between LAC and a developed world benchmark into cause-specific effects. For both sexes, dispersion of amenable diseases through the age span makes the largest contribution to the gap between LAC and the benchmark. Additionally, for males, the concentration of homicides, accidents, and suicides in mid-life further impedes mortality convergence. Great disparity exists in the region: while some countries are rapidly approaching the developed regime, others remain far behind and suffer a clear disadvantage in population health.     

安大简《诗经》“侯六”“魏九”浅析

通过分析《毛诗·魏风》《唐风》诸篇的诗旨和安大简自身的特点,认为安大简《侯》《魏》两部分内并无“误置”现象。又从战国初期的历史背景出发,并结合诗旨、春秋战国时期的“用诗”特点,赞成安大简《魏》之所以抄写《毛诗·唐风》中的诗篇,当与战国时期魏国国力强盛、占有晋国故地相关。由于抄写《唐风》诗篇的部分被称为“魏”,因此,抄写《魏风》的部分就不能再称为“魏”,必须改题。从《毛诗》诸国风的命名逻辑看,“侯”极可能是地名。不过,若考虑到安大简的特点,“侯”为爵位也未尝不可。从安大简《侯》《魏》的特殊安排看,它无疑是一个改编本,其底本与《毛诗》应该非常接近。     

Risk-Informed Requirements for Design and Assessment of Structures Under Temporary Use

The relatively high failure rates, with important consequences in many cases, suggest that the implicitly acceptable risk levels corresponding to temporary civil engineering structures and activities might exceed the bounds of normally acceptable levels associated with different societal activities. Among other reasons, this may be attributed to the lack of a rational approach for the assessment of risks associated with the different technologies supporting these activities in general, and for structures in particular. There is a need for establishing appropriate target reliability levels for structures under temporary use taking into account specific circumstances such as reduced risk exposure times. This issue is being addressed in this article. Acceptance criteria for building-structure-related risks to persons obtained in prior studies are adapted to the special circumstances of nonpermanent risk exposure. Thereby, the general principle followed is to maintain the same risk levels per time unit as for permanently occupied buildings. The adaptation is based on the statistical annual fatality rate, a life safety risk metric that allows for a consistent comparison of risks across different societal activities and technologies. It is shown that the target reliability indices taking account of the temporary use of buildings might be significantly higher than the values suggested for permanently used structures.     

以人民为中心的理论认识与制度安排

以人民为中心的思想理念拓展了传统意义上的人民概念和创造历史伟业的依靠对象。依靠人民创造历史伟业，发展生产力，提供丰富的物质财富、精神财富和生态财富。构建劳动力资本化为劳动者股份的制度安排，合理界定劳动收入和资本收入的边界，保障劳动贡献归劳动者所得，资本贡献归资本所有者所得，为人民实现美好生活需要提供制度和收入上的保障。以人民为中心的思想理念，是对《共产党宣言》的每个人自由发展思想的继承和发展，是马克思主义中国化时代化大众化的理论成果。     

为情而造文与为文而造情之比较研究

为情而造文与为文而造情在《文心雕龙·情采》篇中以一组对立的概念出现，关于为情而造文历来受到研究者们的肯定与重视，但为文而造情一直遭到尖锐的批判，只有个别学者加以研究与肯定。关于两者的比较研究目前尚未开展，对二者进行比较研究，有助于探索文学本位，正确对待儒家传统文化。     

A decade after the Reform: political activism of the Chinese of West Kalimantan,Indonesia

Political reform after the departure of President Soeharto’s New Order (1966–1998) provided opportunities for previously oppressed social groups to express their concerns and to demand fair recognition. The results of this newly found freedom have been quite immediately visible in Jakarta, where social and political institutions spearheaded by Chinese originally sprouted. In the regions, political participation of ethnic Chinese has also grown; significantly in those regions with a large Chinese population. In West Kalimantan, the number of Chinese being elected to local parliaments in some regions has doubled. They have also contested numerous direct local executive elections since 2003 and have been successful in winning four posts: a mayor, a district head, a deputy district head, and a deputy governor. By looking at the case of West Kalimantan, this article will examine the factors behind the growth in Chinese political activism, the factors contributing to the success of Chinese candidates in elections, how the Chinese have influenced local and provincial politics, and the challenges they are facing.     

论“立言”

两千多年前的春秋时代,中国知识分子就非常重视"立言",把它视作传名、追求不朽甚至永恒的重要手段。在建设文化强国的今天,继承"立言"的传统,把有价值的见解或史料、经验、发现等通过著书立说的方式贡献出来,是很有必要的。如何"立言",如何使自己所立之言得到社会的认可,并有较长的生命力,是目前知识界面临的难题。"立言"之人要有追求真理的精神、实事求是的态度;"立言"者须有创新意识,努力使自己的著作具有独创性;"立言"者还必须有精品意识,对自己的著作不断修改、加工,使之趋于完美;"立言"者须先修身,提高自身精神境界,更好地了解社会的需要和自己的责任。如此,方能"立言"成功。